Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) distribution in Switzerland

Within the SWATCH21 project framework, we predicted climate change impacts on EPT distribution and richness in Swiss running waters according to two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), using different modeling approaches, i.e. species distribution models (SDMs), stacked-SDMs (S-SDMs) and macroecological model (MEM). We used incidence data of 41 species from 259 sites distributed across Switzerland. We integrated a coupled model for hydrology and glacier retreat to simulate monthly time-step discharge from which we derived hydrological variables. These, along with thermal, land-cover, topographic and spatially explicit data, served as predictors for our ecological models. These were implemented by generalized linear models (GLM) and random forest (RF) followed by an ensemble forecast (ENS). We used a community cross-validation (CCV) approach, using a repeated split-sample procedure for models' evaluation. A research paper that summarizes our study and discusses the results has been recently accepted for publication in the scientific journal Global Change Biology. This web application was developed to interactively explore all the models' details, to ensure transparency and promote sharing of information. For information regarding the methods, see our paper.

Impacts of climate change on aquatic insects in temperate alpine regions: complementary modeling approaches applied to Swiss rivers

Pablo Timoner1, Marc Fasel1, Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi2, Pierre Marle3, Emmanuel Castella3, Frédéric Moser4, Anthony Lehmann1

1enviroSPACE Group, Department F.-A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences, University of Geneva, Institute for Environmental Sciences, Switzerland
2Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 133, CH-8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland
3Aquatic Ecology Group, Department F.-A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences, University of Geneva, Institute for Environmental Sciences, Switzerland
3GRID-Geneva, University of Geneva, Institute for Environmental Sciences, 66 Boulevard Carl-Vogt, CH-1205 Geneva, Switzerland

Corresponding author: Pablo Timoner (pablo.timoner@unige.ch)

The authors acknowledge the collaboration with the Centre Suisse de Cartographie de la Faune (CSCF) and all the contributors who made available the species occurence data.
The authors acknowledge the funding of the Swiss National Science Foundation no. 315230_173206.


Whenever you use any information from this website please cite the following paper:

Timoner, P., Fasel, M., AshrafVaghefi, S.S., Marle, P., Castella, E., Moser, F. and Lehmann, A. (2021), Impacts of climate change on aquatic insects in temperate alpine regions: complementary modeling approaches applied to Swiss rivers. Global Change Biology. Accepted Author Manuscript. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15637

Distribution map

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Distribution of occurence probabilities

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Variable importance

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Response curves

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Distribution map

Distribution of species richness values

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Variable importance

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Response curves

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